In the realm of international economics and geopolitics, the term “BRICS” holds significant importance. Coined initially by economist Jim O’Neill in 2001, the acronym refers to the five major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. These nations, with their vast populations and rapidly growing economies, have garnered global attention and influence over the past ten to fifteen years. In this blog post, we delve into the BRICS nations, examining their populations and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to understand their collective impact on the world stage.
On August 24th during the 15th BRICS summit ushers in additional member states to further strengthen the size of the bloc effective 1st January 2024. These countries are Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, UAE, and Argentina. This has demonstrated that the BRICS group is not a mere talk shop and has brought about a more equitable global economic order and increased the standing of the global south in world economic matters.
Some key facts about the expanded BRICS alliance
- Account for 30% of global GDP
- Account for 40% of the global population
- Account for 43% of daily crude oil production
- Bring together 10 of the highest energy suppliers in the world
Combine Economy based on GPD
With China already part of BRICS, additional additional 6 members although it will create a significant trading opportunity, will not significantly change the size of the GDP of the group. Based on the 2023 IMF GDP projection, the current BRICS nations have a combined GDP of about $27 trillion which represents 26.3% of the global total. With an additional 6 members, the combined GDP is expected to climb slightly to $30.8 trillion which will represent about 30% of global GDP.
Crude Oil Production
This could be the key game changer for the future. The current members of the BRICS alliance, do account for a significant amount of global daily oil production. Thanks to Russia (with 11% of the total), China (4.4%) and Brazil (3.2%). With the inclusion of Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the UAE, the BRICS nations will experience a significant boost in their total contribution to global oil production. The size will grow from about 19 million barrels per day (20%) to about 40 million barrels per day (43%). This ratio could have been completely different if Nigeria admitted to the group. The rest of the world produces about 50 million barrels per day.
Combined Population
BRICS nations have always been blessed with a large population which represents access to markets thanks to India and China two of the most populous countries in the world. The combined population of the 2 countries is over 2.6 billion people. They are home to 4 of the 10 largest cities in the world.
The two biggest populations being added to BRICS are Ethiopia (126.5 million) and Egypt (112.7 million). Overall adding the 6 new members will bring an additional 423 million people to the bloc. This will bring the total population of the BRICS members to 3.7 billion people which represents over 50% of the world population. The increase could have been higher with approximately 220 million if Nigeria’s application had been accepted by the group.
Challenges and Opportunities
China has indicated its willingness to deepen its relationship with South Africa and others. This could be challenging for South Africa which currently enjoys strong ties with the West, especially the United States. Analysts believe existing bilateral relationships would not be impacted due to the existing strategic autonomy allowed in the alliance.
Another sticky one is the relationship between China and India. The bloc sees this as a healthy competition that needs to be managed. The 2 great nations need each other to remain independent and competitive. The cohesion of the relationship solidifies the influence of the global south as a strategic pack to listen to and not just a mere talk shop.
Lastly, can the BRICS bloc exist without China? For me, the BRICS needs China and China needs BRICS. Although the headquarters of the New Development Bank (NDB) is located in China its current trading, financing, and issuing of bonds are in the same structure as the rest of the world. It follows the same principles that guarantee transparency and equity. Also joining BRICS doesn’t automatically provide membership to NDB. This takes a completely different process. It will be interesting to see progress in the much-discussed single currency and how it’s rollout will impact the overall dynamics of operation With many existing and new members such as Russia and Iran facing economic difficulties, this is certainly one sticky point to be resolved going forward.
Who else is interested in joining
According to many news agencies such as Reuters, there are over 40 countries that have expressed interest in joining the group. A few of them have actually submitted applications. One widely considered to have included among the 6 that will join on January 1st, 2024 was Nigeria. Potentially new developments in the country and the political posturing especially with the coup in Niger may have impacted the decision to be suspended.
